A United Ireland Referendum Cannot Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Alert

Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."